Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 24th = Uptrend
- 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
- Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend
As mentioned in last Sunday’s outlook, the S&P headed lower last week. Nothing crazy, but there are some new price levels to watch.
Most of the indexes are remain above their 20/50-day moving averages. The Dow Jones continues to underperform ($INDU), and now sits below the 20 AND 50 day. The S&P500 ended the week resting directly on its 20 day.
No change in the price/volume action last week. And OEW remains in an uptrend.
Now let’s take a closer look at the S&P ($SPX). After rising in early June, the ADX line is heading lower again. The ADX never rose above 20, so the uptrend wasn’t/isn’t very strong. Last week saw the bearish directional indicator (DI-) cross above the bullish directional indicator (DI+), so now we’ve got bearish price action on top of that weakening trend. Time to dust off those momentum indicators!
I mentioned the likelihood of sideways and even falling price action last week, given that we ran into the upper channel and summer vacation season (i.e. reduced trading activity) was about to start. You may have also noticed that the mid-March high (2786.57) is almost exactly where the latest rally topped out on June 12 (2786.85). We’ll need to see a decisive move above 2787 to know whether this uptrend can continue.
Short-term, there seems to be some support around 2740, otherwise look to the 50-day and lower channel (~1.5% and 2% below the current price, respectively). And lets hope this isn’t a big sideways channel between the February low (2581) and the March high (2787).
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You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:
- 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook