Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 4th = Downtrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

Friday’s strong rally wasn’t enough to recover from them mid-week sell-off, putting the market outlook back in downtrend territory to start this week.  Plans for tariffs on steel and aluminum, and talk of the resulting trade-war didn’t do the investors any favors either.

We saw the Nasdaq retake the 50 day last week, but the other indexes weren’t so lucky.  A majority of the indexes start this week below the 20 and 50 day moving averages, so the signal changes to a downtrend.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-03-04 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action also switches to a downtrend.  Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were distribution days, with markets falling on sequentially higher trading volume; a clear sign of institutional selling.  Breakouts continue to struggle.

OEW continues to see an uptrend, but doesn’t exclude the possibility that stock prices retest the February lows.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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