Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 4th = Downtrend
- 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
- Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
- Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend
Friday’s strong rally wasn’t enough to recover from them mid-week sell-off, putting the market outlook back in downtrend territory to start this week. Plans for tariffs on steel and aluminum, and talk of the resulting trade-war didn’t do the investors any favors either.
We saw the Nasdaq retake the 50 day last week, but the other indexes weren’t so lucky. A majority of the indexes start this week below the 20 and 50 day moving averages, so the signal changes to a downtrend.
Price and volume action also switches to a downtrend. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were distribution days, with markets falling on sequentially higher trading volume; a clear sign of institutional selling. Breakouts continue to struggle.
OEW continues to see an uptrend, but doesn’t exclude the possibility that stock prices retest the February lows.
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You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:
- 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook