Market Outlook entering the Week of November 15th = Short-term downtrend/Medium-term uptrend
- Short-term (20 DMA): Sell Signal
All the major stock market averages fell below their 20-day moving averages.
- Intermediate (50 DMA): Mixed
2 of the major stock market averages (NYSE & Russell 2000) fell below their 50-day moving averages.
- Long-term (200 DMA): Sell Signal
All of the major stock market averages fell or remained below their 200-day moving averages.
US markets ran into some heavy selling last week, indicated by downward price action with higher trading volumes. The updated market outlook has a lot of red in it, but that’s not surprising since we’re only a few weeks away from the start of the latest medium-term uptrend. The 200-day moving averages are higher than then 50-day moving averages, which normally occurs after a heavy sell-off like the one the US markets encountered in late August and September.
That said, this latest sell-off means we’re one step closer to the end of the current bull market in US equities. According to OEW, the markets have one more rally in them. The S&P500 is expected to make new highs (2134+) before it’s over, which is ~5% from Friday’s close. After that point, we’re on borrowed time.
Moving Average Signals:
- Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
- Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
- Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
- Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week