Market Outlook entering the Week of July 12th = Mixed
- Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
All of the major stock market averages remained below their 20-day moving averages.
- Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
All the major stock market averages remained below their 50-day moving averages.
- Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
4 of the 5 major stock market averages closed above their 200-day moving averages. The NYSE remained below, while the S&P500 and DJIA were able to recover before the end of the week.
A lot of volatility in the US markets last week, although nothing as dramatic as the 5%+ moves in Chinese equities. Nothing a little “ban” won’t help; as in banning sales by major stock holders! (Bloomberg). Couple that with news that Greece submitted another bailout proposal, and we’re back to where we started last week’s market outlook.
Trading volumes remained subdued, both on the downside AND the upside, so price-volume action continues to indicate we’re in an uptrend that’s encountering selling pressure.
Intermediate support/resistance levels from Objective Elliott Wave analysis remain unchanged from last week:
- Resistance: 2,185/ 2,131
- Support: 2,019 / 2,070
This “correction” has been pretty minor (~4% for the S&P), and the Put/Call ratio has already spiked to it’s highest level in months (a contrarian indicator). With Europe’s quantitative easing still going strong, and Chinese brokers adding liquidity, odds are this latest round of selling won’t be the one to sink the market.
Moving Average Signals:
- Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
- Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
- Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
- Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week