Weekend Market Outlook – Independence Day Edition

Market Outlook entering the Week of July 5th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

  • Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
    All of the major stock market averages fell or remained below their 20-day moving averages.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
    All the major stock market averages fell or remained below their 50-day moving averages.
  • Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
    4 of the 5 major stock market averages remained above their 200-day moving averages.  The NYSE closed below, and the DJIA was able to recover before the end of the week.

COMMENTARY
News that Greece would miss their June 30th repayment deadline was enough to sink the market averages last week.  Coupled with a shortened trading week and lower volumes from the U.S. July 4th holiday, any recovery would be weak at best.

Again, the market is sending mixed messages.  With subdued volume, the price-volume action continues to show selling pressure, but not an outright correction.

After 10 straight weeks of sideways movement, the intermediate support/resistance levels from Objective Elliott Wave analysis finally dropped a notch.

  • Resistance:  2,185/ 2,131
  • Support:  2,019 / 2,070

Global markets will remain the focus over the next few weeks.  Greeks go to the polls on Sunday to vote on accepting the terms of the international bailout, and those results are sure to have an impact on the markets next week.  Just as troubling but less reported, the Shanghai Composite has lost 24% since June 12, and the Shenzhen Composite is down roughly 30% in the same period, meaning more pressure on US equities.

Best of luck!

2015-07-05 - US Stock Market Averages

2015-07-05 – US Stock Market Averages

Sources:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

  • Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
  • Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
  • Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
  • Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
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