Safe Investing – Weekend Market Outlook

Market Outlook entering the Week of September 21st = Unconfirmed Uptrend

Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
With the exception of the NASD, all the major stock market averages closed the week above their 20-day moving averages.

Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
With the exception of the NYSE, all the major stock market averages continue to trade above their 50-day moving averages.

Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
The current bull market [March 2009 – Present] continues.

William O’Neil’s Big Picture analysis flip-flopped last week, moving from a confirmed uptrend, to an uptrend under pressure, and then back to a “confirmed uptrend”.  The medium and long term Objective Elliott Wave uptrends from Tony remain intact.

The NYSE did retake the 50-day moving average, which is a positive sign.  Revisiting last weekends S&P500 price levels:

  1. 1,905 – The S&P500 remained ~5% above this level
  2. 2,011 – On Thursday, the S&P500 closed at 2011.36, and on Friday we closed at 2010

Since the S&P wasn’t able to breach the 2,011 level, the “high probability” of an extended uptrend wasn’t confirmed, which is a negative sign.  We’ll have to see if we can bust through that level next week.

Tony’s analysis narrowed our confirmation windows a bit:

  1. 1,991 – If we fall to 1,991, the probability of a correction is high
  2. 2,011 – If we rise above 2,011, the probability of a continued uptrend is high

Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro

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