The Safe Investing Blog

Market Outlook entering the Week of Dec 28th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
A short, typical holiday trading week; the markets rose on low trading volume.

O’neil’s price/volume analysis switched from a correction to an uptrend under pressure, which is a first. The new high for the S&P500 qualifies as the start of a new uptrend, but the high level of distribution days (high volume selling) combines with low trading volume to keep optimism under wraps.

Elliott Wave Analysis shows an intermediate-term uptrend, and the key S&P500 price levels to watch have increased incrementally:

• Resistance: 2,131 / 2,214
• Support: 2,070 / 2,085

I expect a quiet market next week, as the holiday season winds down.  Take all the price action with a grain of salt so you can start 2015 profitably.

Elliott Wave Analysis from the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2014-12-27 – US Stock Market Averages – Stockcharts.com

Market Outlook entering the Week of Dec 21st = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
That was quite a week…nothing like some volatility to liven up the holidays.

By Monday’s close, price/volume analysis showed the major indexes followed last week’s negative trend, moving from an uptrend under pressure into a correction. Even the massive moves to the upside on Wednesday and Thursday weren’t enough to confirm a new uptrend…yet.  This is why the market outlook remains at “mixed”.

Elliott Wave Analysis shows the intermediate downtrend was very short, and an uptrend is now probable.  Key S&P500 price levels to watch:

• Resistance: 2,085 / 2,131
• Support: 2,019 / 2,070

One positive aspect of all this volatility has been the opportunities to prune my portfolio.  Only the strong have survived, leaving me with some free capital for new investments should a new uptrend find some legs.

Elliott Wave Analysis from the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2014-12-21 – US Stock Market Averages

Market Outlook entering the Week of Dec 14th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Mixed
  The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq closed above their 50-day moving average, along with the DJIA and the S&P500 (although just barely).  The NYSE closed below the 50-day moving average.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed
  The NYSE closed below the 200-day moving average, while the other major stock market averages ended the week above the 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Volume/price analysis of the major indexes moved from a confirmed uptrend to an uptrend under pressure, adding another 2-3 high-volume selling days to the count for a total of 4-5 (depending on the index).

Elliott Wave Analysis shows an intermediate downtrend is underway, but how long and how much remain are uncertain.

Time to prune that low-hanging fruit from your portfolio by selling investments that are showing signs of technical and/or fundamental weakness (breaking key support levels, lowering future revenue predictions, missing quarterly earnings, etc.).

Key S&P500 price levels to watch:

• Resistance: 2,019 / 2,070
• Support: 1,956 / 1,973

Elliott Wave Analysis from the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2014-12-14 – US Stock Market Averages