The Safe Investing Blog

Market Outlook entering the Week of Feb 8th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Another week, same story; high volatility.  We can now say that the market has been range-bound or trendless to start 2015.  Combined with the high volatility we’re seeing each day, it’s no surprise that short and mid-term trading signals are switching from buy to sell to buy on a daily basis.  Until market prices are able exit the range (to the upside or the downside), I expect the market outlook to remain “mixed”.

Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Analysis reversed course again (verses last week’s downtrend) and shows a uptrend.  With regard to support levels, the S&P500 returned to the support level two weeks ago:

• Resistance: 2,070 / 2,085
• Support: 1,973 / 2,019

Price and volume analysis continues to show a struggling stock market, with another day of high-volume selling added to the count.

Trendless or sideways markets are a great time to prune your portfolio.  Your strongest stocks (fundamentally/technically speaking) will likely be the same stocks that large institutions are holding.  When a new trend finally takes hold, your primed for profit.  If the market rallies, stocks that weather the storm will continue to perform well.  If the market goes into bear mode, the strong stocks will be the last to follow the trend, allowing you a profitable exit.

Remember, the only “good” investments are the ones that make you money!

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2015-02-08 – US Stock Market Averages

Market Outlook entering the Week of Feb 1st = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
  With the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial, all the major stock market averages ended the week below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Last week was a rough one for investors.  Even sectors that held up relatively well the past few months, such as utilities and consumer goods, were hit hard.

Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Analysis reversed course (verses last week’s uptrend) and shows a downtrend underway.  With regard to support levels, the S&P500 slipped a notch, with last weeks support level becoming a resistance level this week (2,019):

• Resistance: 2,019 / 2,070
• Support: 1,956 / 1,973

From a technical analysis perspective, all the major market averages have now encountered a “death cross” in their short-term moving averages.  In this case, the 20 and 50 day moving averages crossed, which corresponds to a short-term downtrend.

Price/volume analysis starts this week in a cautionary mode, due to several days of high volume selling last week.

Safe investors always protect against losses, regardless of the time frame, because there are always new opportunities for those who still have money to invest!

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2015-02-01 – US Stock Market Averages

Market Outlook entering the Week of Jan 25th = Uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  With the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial, all the major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
High volatility continues to be the order of the day.

Price/volume analysis kicked of last week with an uptrend under pressure, but positive news from the European Central Bank put investors back into buying mode and the market into an uptrend.  A 1.2 trillion Euro quantitative easing (i.e. “QE”) program tends to do that.

Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Analysis returned to an uptrend (verses last week’s uptrend in jeopardy).  With regard to support levels, the S&P500 appears range-bound between 2,085 and 1,973 (~6%):

• Resistance: 2,070 / 2,085
• Support: 1,973 / 2,019

A boost from QE is nice, but may be short-lived.  The outcome of Greek elections is the wild card; in terms of the winning party, their stance on austerity, and the markets reaction to that stance.

The good news is that last week’s message still holds true:  you can harness a volatile market if your process is focused on a short-term time frame (1-2 weeks) and you have entry and exit signals to match.  If you have a longer time frame, these ups and downs can be emotional if you don’t trust your system.

Safe investors always protect against losses, regardless of the timeframe, because there are always new opportunities for those who still have money to invest!

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2015-01-25 – US Market Averages