Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 22nd = Downtrend
No change in the market outlook based on last week’s trading action. Friday’s option expiration gave the expected boost to prices, but volume was a bit subdued.
Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 15th = Downtrend
Maybe there is some truth in the old adage “sell in May and go away”. Last weeks selling pressure continued to weaken the markets, moving the outlook from “mixed” to “downtrend”.
Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 8th = Mixed
The February uptrend appears to be ending.Last week, the Russell 2000 joined the NASDAQ below their 200-day moving average, while the NYSE, S&P500 and DJIA tested that level during Friday’s trading session.
Yes…you read that headline correctly. Let it remind you that the average investor does not have an information advantage.
The headline comes courtesy of Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture), from a working paper created by the European Central Bank. The paper discusses price movements in stock index and Treasury futures markets just before macroeconomic announcements.
Per the abstract:
We examine stock index and Treasury futures markets around releases of U.S.macroeconomic announcements. Seven out of 21 market-moving announcementsshow evidence of substantial informed trading before the official release time. Prices begin to move in the “correct” direction about 30 minutes before the release time.The pre-announcement price drift accounts on average for about half of the total price adjustment. These results imply that some traders have private information about macroeconomic fundamentals. The evidence suggests that the pre-announcement drift likely comes from a combination of information leakage and superior forecasting based on proprietary data collection and reprocessing of public information.
Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 1st = Uptrend
The uptrend remains intact for another week, although not without some substantial short-term selling (using the 20-day moving average as a proxy).
Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 24th = Uptrend
The uptrend remains intact, as big money continues to rotate through the different sectors. Last week, basic materials, financials, and healthcare took the spotlight, while utilities got thrashed…not to mention Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.
Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 17th = Uptrend
The U.S. markets regrouped last week, finding technical support at their 20 and 200-day moving averages.
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