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JP Morgan Asset Management has updated their quarterly market outlook in the latest installment of ‘Market Insights’
Each quarter, you can find this little gem of a PDF on JP Morgan’s Asset management website; a downloadable “Guide to the Markets” AND audio commentary.
Topics include US Equities, Economy and Fixed Income, along with an view of the International landscape and Asset Class performance.
Sources:
JP Morgan Guide to the Markets: Q2 2014
http://www.jpmorganfunds.com
This week’s action was ugly. Per Investor’s Business Daily, we’re in a correction, which matches the short-term outlook from Elliot Wave.
Whether this is the start of “the big correction” remains to be seen. Remember to follow your process, lock in gains when prudent, but above all else KEEP YOUR LOSSES SMALL!
Short-Term: Downtrend in search of support
Mid-Term: Downtrend
Long-Term: Uptrend
REVIEW
A volatile and somewhat disappointing week for the bulls. The week started off with a gap down on Monday, followed by a tradable low at SPX 1837 on Tuesday. Then after a rally to SPX 1873 at Thursday’s open, the market sold off rapidly into Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.50%, the NDX/NAZ were -2.85%, and the DJ World index was -2.0%. Economic reports for the week, oddly enough, were all to the upside. On the uptick: consumer credit, wholesale inventories, export/import prices, the PPI, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, the M1-multiplier, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims both improved. Next week we get reports on the FED’s beige book, Industrial production, the NY/Philly FED and Housing.
LONG TERM: bull market
This week’s market activity put a dent in our more bullish realignment scenario as the SPX/DOW/NDX/NAZ all confirmed downtrends. The realignment would have occurred if the SPX/DOW remained…
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REVIEW
The market started the week opening higher, but then took on the character that had started on expiration Friday: sell growth stocks after the opening. During the week the market had three gap up openings, no gap downs, and still ended the week lower. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, the NDX/NAZ lost 2.5%, and the DJ World index rose 0.8%. Economic reports for the week remained positive. On the uptick: Q4 GDP, FHFA housing prices, consumer confidence/sentiment, durable goods orders, personal income/spending, PCE prices, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: Case-Shiller, new/pending home sales and the M1-multiplier. Next week we get a look at the monthly Payrolls, ISM and Auto sales. Best to your week!
LONG TERM: bull market
We continue to count this five year bull market as Cycle wave [1] of the next Super cycle bull market. Cycle wave bull markets…
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Weekend reading from Barry Ritholtz on how to tell if stocks are cheap or expensive. Basically, valuing stocks involves the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E Ratio), so you need price and future profits. Price is known, future profits are “estimated”.
As far as safe investing goes, the best line of the whole article is towards the end:
Investing is about making probabilistic decisions with limited information about an unknowable future.
Basically, you’ll never be right 100% of the time. You’re goal is to make money when you are correct, and lose the smallest amount possible when you’re wrong. Over time, this is the winning formula. And it’s only possible if you view investing as a process.
Source:
Are Stocks Cheap or Not? How to Tell
Barry Ritholtz
Washington Post, March 23, 2014
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/how-to-know-whether-stocks-are-cheap-or-pricey/2014/03/20/ec105d54-ae2c-11e3-9627-c65021d6d572_story.html
From the Elliott Wave lives on: Long and mid-term outlooks remain bullish. In the short term, expectations are for a surge higher, although there is a chance at another correction.
REVIEW
The market started the week gapping up after last Friday’s decline to SPX 1840. The rally carried it into FOMC Wednesday to SPX 1874. Then right after the FOMC statement was released the market dropped to SPX 1850. Another rally carried the market to match the all time high at SPX 1884 on Friday. Then right after the open Techs sold off and the market pulled back again. Another choppy week, only this time to the upside. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.45%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.7%, and the DJ World index rose 0.7%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the uptick: NY/Philly FED, capacity utilization, industrial production, NAHB, housing starts, building permits, CPI, leading indicators and the monetary base. On the downtick: existing home sales, and weekly jobless claims edged higher. Next week: Q4 GDP, Durable goods orders, and more Housing reports.
LONG TERM: bull market
We…
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Technical Analysis – Last weeks summary of market action from Tony at the Elliot Wave Lives On.
REVIEW
The market opened the week with a rally to new highs by noon Monday. After that it tested and retested the 1841 pivot four times, day traders delight, with the last test Thursday morning. Then the market hit an even higher high on Friday, before again selling off again. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.30%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.00%, and the DJ World index was +1.00%. Economic reports for the week were again slightly biased negatively, for the fourth week in a row. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, the FHFA index, new/pending home sales, the Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment. On the downtick: consumer confidence, durable goods orders, Q4 GDP, median new home prices, the WLEI (4th week in a row), the M-1 multiplier and weekly jobless claims were higher. Next week we get reports on the ISM, the FED’s beige book and monthly Payrolls.
LONG TERM: bull market
Last week we discussed the…
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