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Market Outlook for the Week of July 21st = Minor Correction in Progress, with one more run at new highs before a major correction.
Short-term (20 DMA):
Almost all the stock indexes tested their 20-day moving averages last week, except for the Russell 2000, which ended below its 50-day moving average. Per IBD, the general market uptrend is still under selling pressure.Intermediate (50 DMA):
Although the averages are above their 50-day moving averages (e.g. the S&P500 is 2% higher), Elliot Wave indicates that the recent uptrend is over…if a downtrend is confirmed, expect the averages to test their 50 days.Long-term (200 DMA):
Market averages remain above their 200 day moving averages (e.g. the S&P500 is 7% higher), and the current bull market continues per Elliot Wave.Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro
Market Indexes
REVIEW
Last week we had four gap openings, three to the downside, and the market traded to SPX 1953 on Thursday before ending the week at 1968. This week we had four gap openings again, three to the upside, and the market traded to SPX 1956 on Thursday before ending the week at 1978. Meanwhile during all this volatility the SPX has yet to hit the bull market high at 1986 achieved the week before all this began. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.65%, and the DJ World index was +0.45%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative reports nine to six. On the uptick: the NY/Philly FED, retail sales, business inventories, the PPI, industrial production, the NAHB, leading indicators and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: export/import prices, housing starts, building permits, consumer sentiment and the WLEI. Next week we get reports on home…
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Market Outlook for the Week of July 14th = Minor Correction in Progress
- Short-term (20 DMA):
- Almost all the indexes ended the week above their 20-day moving averages (except for the Russell 2000). Per IBD, the general market uptrend is under selling pressure.
- Intermediate (50 DMA):
- Market averages remain above their 50-day moving averages, but Elliot Wave indicates that the recent uptrend is probably over, leaving one more run at new highs before a major correction.
- Long-term (200 DMA):
- Market averages remain extended from their 200 day moving averages, and the bull market continues per Elliot Wave.
Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro
REVIEW
The market opened the week on a gap down, one of several, as it started to correct from last week’s SPX 1986 all time high. After hitting SPX 1953 on Thursday the market tried to rebound into Friday’s close. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.80%, the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%, and the DJ World index was down 1.55%. Economic reports were sparse on this first full trading week of the quarter. On the uptick: consumer credit, wholesale inventories, the WLEI, a Treasury surplus, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: the monetary base. Next week we have the FED’s beige book, Industrial production and reports on Housing, to name a few, within a busy week.
LONG TERM: bull market
The bull market went on pause this week as Portugal’s largest bank ran into problems, and fears of another European banking crisis arose. If you recall, the steep corrections of 2010…
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JP Morgan Asset Management has updated their quarterly market outlook in the latest installment of ‘Market Insights’
Market Insights
Each quarter, you can find this little gem of a PDF on JP Morgan’s Asset management website; a downloadable “Guide to the Markets” AND audio commentary.
Topics include US Equities, Economy and Fixed Income, along with an view of the International landscape and Asset Class performance.
Sources:
JP Morgan Guide to the Markets: Q3 2014
http://www.jpmorganfunds.com
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Market Outlook for the Week of July 7th = Uptrend Intact
Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro
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