Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 7th = Uptrend
- Average Directional Index: Bullish
- Institutional Activity: Mixed
- On-Balance Volume: Bullish
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, with the market looking forward to this week’s FOMC meeting.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.3% last week. The index sits ~1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.
No change in the signals this week; the ADX and On-Balance Volume are bullish, while institutional activity is still mixed.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for Dec 07 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed last week. Utilities ( $XLU ) led the to downside and shifted to bearish bias. Real Estate ( $XLRE ) also fell to Bearish, Staples and Materials ( $XLP & $XLB ) downshifted to Neutral. Communications and Discretionary ( $XLC & $XLY ) moved from Neutral to Bullish.
S&P Sector Performance from Week 49 of 2025
High Beta ( $SPHB ) investing style was the largest gainer, and Low Beta ( $SPLV ) was the largest loser. Momentum ( $MTUM ) shifted back into bullish bias; Low Beta and High Dividend ( $SPLV & $SPHD ) styles moved to bearish.
Sector Style Performance from Week 49 of 2025
Oil ( $USO ) was the best asset class last week. After a rough stretch, Oil moved up to Neutral bias, signaling potential bullish price action ahead. Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed. Bonds and the US dollar ( $IEF & $DXY ) also moved to neutral bias.
Asset Class Performance from Week 49 2025
COMMENTARY
Trading volume was muted last week; no surprise for the start of the holiday season. But that means we’re still waiting for institutional activity to confirm a new rally.
November’s ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, which was lower than estimates, October data, and on a year-over-year basis. Services PMI rose to 52.6 in November, above forecasts and October data, and matching last year.
September PCE data was inline with estimates, and remains “sticky”.
| PCE (y/y) | Actual | Prior |
Expected |
| Headline | +2.8% | +2.7% | +2.8% |
| Core | +2.8% | +2.9% | +2.9% |
This week, JOLTS for September and October are set for release on Tuesday, followed by another FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Best to Your Week!
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