Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 30th = Uptrend
- Average Directional Index: Bullish
- Institutional Activity: Mixed
- On-Balance Volume: Bullish
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook flipped back into an uptrend, after spending a few sessions below key moving averages.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rallied 3.7% last week. The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.
The ADX moved to bullish, rejoining On-Balance Volume, and putting the outlook back into an uptrend with 2 of 3 signals indicating bullish price action. Institutional activity was light last week; despite the rally back above the 50-day moving average, none of the price action met the criteria for a new uptrend.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for Nov 30 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
All sectors ended the week higher last week, with Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) leading the way with an impressive ~7% gain. Consumer Staples, Financials, Industrials, Materials, and Technology regained bullish bias, while Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate move back to neutral.
S&P Sector Performance from Week 48 of 2025
The gains continued across all sector styles, with Small Cap Growth putting in a ~9% improvement. Every category also improved its bias, with a majority now back in bullish territory.
Sector Style Performance from Week 48 of 2025
Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) outperformed last week, but all asset classes gained ground versus the dollar. Both Bonds and Equities ( $IEF & $SPY ) moved back to bullish bias as well.
Asset Class Performance from Week 48 2025
COMMENTARY
Market participants were in a giving mood last week, pumping most assets higher during the holiday shortened week. Not enough institutional activity for a confirmed rally, but not a bad way to end November either.
There was definitely broad participation in the gains last week, but the lower trading volumes mean most breakouts were probably weak. Large price moves on increased volume after a period of consolidation is what you want to see when evaluating your watchlists.
Headline PPI from September showed no change, while core was down 0.3% y/y. September retail sales and Durable Goods orders also fell slightly verses last year.
This week we’ll get ISM PMI data for November, and a September PCE number on Friday!
Best to Your Week!
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