Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 26th = Uptrend
- Average Directional Index: Downtrend
- Institutional Activity: Uptrend
- On-Balance Volume: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.9% last week. The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~12% above the 200-day moving average.
No change in the indicators last week. The ADX is on the verge of a bullish crossover, and the index added another distribution day, bringing the total 5.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for Oct 26 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
The Tech sector ( $XLK ) outperformed, while Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) lagged. Energy and Financials ( $XLE, $XLF ) eased back to Neutral bias, and Industrials ( $XLI ) shifted up Bullish.
S&P Sector Performance from Week 43 of 2025
High Beta ( $SPHB ) outperformed again, and Low Beta ( $SPLV ) underperformed … again. Mid Cap Growth and Value ( $IJH, $IJJ ) moved back to Bullish bias from Neutral.
Sector Style Performance from Week 43 of 2025
Oil popped higher last week on news that the U.S. sanctioned two Russian oil companies, putting it back to Neutral trend. Gold ( $GLD ) underperformed. And the U.S. Dollar moved back to Bullish bias.
Asset Class Performance from Week 43 2025
COMMENTARY
September’s Headline CPI increased slightly year over year, while Core decreased slightly. Not sure how much I trust this one-off, special data release. With the rest of the government shut-down, how accurate are the inputs?
| CPI (y/y) | Actual | Prior |
Expected |
| Headline | +3.0% | +2.9% | +3.1% |
| Core | +3.0% | +3.1% | +3.1% |
On the heels of the CPI release, we’ve got key earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet this week, along with an FOMC rate decision Wednesday. There’s also a lot of “headline” risk, in response to any U.S.-China trade news ahead of the Nov. 1st deadline.
Best to Your Week!
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