Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 5th = Uptrend
- Average Directional Index: Uptrend
- Institutional Activity: Uptrend
- On-Balance Volume: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.1% last week. The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.
All three indicators are bullish.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for Oct 05 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Healthcare ( $XLV ) was up ~7% last week(!), besting all other sectors by a wide margin. After it’s recent run up, Energy ( $XLE ) lost some of it’s momentum, thanks in part to Crude Oil, and registered the weakest returns. Healtcare and Real Estate ( $XLRE ) improved to Bullish bias, while Materials ( $XLB ) slipped to neutral.
S&P Sector Performance from Week 40 of 2025
High Beta ( $SPHB ) outperformed last week, with Small Cap Growth and Quality ( $IWO & $QUAL ) right behind. Momentum ( $MTUM ) was the only losing style. High Dividend ( $SPHD ) moved back to bullish bias from neutral.
Sector Style Performance from Week 40 of 2025
Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) got its mojo back, jumping ~13%, and reclaimed bullish bias. On the other hand, Oil ( $USO ) dropped ~7% last week and returned to bearish bias…just one week after popping ~5% moving to bullish.
Asset Class Performance from Week 40 2025
COMMENTARY
Last week’s data releases showed August job openings ( JOLTs ) increased slightly. The ISM Manufacturing survey show a small improvement as well, while services were a bit lower. The main course, Non-Farm Payrolls, wasn’t released due to the U.S. government shutdown, so other tea leaves need reading prior to the next FOMC meeting.
While there’s been a lot of noise about interest rates and unemployment, the general indexes continue to march higher. Even a bit of volatility below the surface of the market (in terms of sectors and styles) hasn’t done much to slow it’s advance.
Best to Your Week!
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