Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 28th = Uptrend
- Average Directional Index: Uptrend
- Institutional Activity: Uptrend
- On-Balance Volume: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 0.3% last week. The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.
All three indicators remain bullish.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for Sept 28 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed last week, and it was Materials turn ( $XLB ) to lead on the downside. Adding insult to injury, Materials also fell into bearish bias; Healthcare fell to neutral.
S&P Sector Performance from Week 39 of 2025
Low Beta ( $SPLV ) outperformed last week with a gain of 0.8%! All other sector styles struggled, with High Beta ( $SPHB ) down the most. Low beta climbed up to neutral bias, while High Dividend ( $SPHD ) stumbled down to neutral.
Sector Style Performance from Week 39 of 2025
Oil ( $USO ) jumped almost 5% last week, while Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed again. Those two assets also flipped their biases; Oil to bullish and Bitcoin to bearish. The dollar showed signs of life last week; something to keep an eye on as a strengthening dollar will impact asset prices.
Asset Class Performance from Week 39 2025
COMMENTARY
U.S. equity indexes came into the week overbought, so last week’s downside volatility wasn’t too surprising. Market participants quickly bought the dip, with the $SPX finding support at the 21-day moving average.
The third and final update for Q2 GDP came in at +3.8%, a full 50 basis points higher than the second estimate, thanks increases in consumption.
August PCE data was inline with estimates and remains “sticky”.
| PCE (y/y) | Actual | Prior |
Expected |
| Headline | +2.7% | +2.6% | +2.7% |
| Core | +2.9% | +2.9% | +2.9% |
This week is employment data (JOLTS, NFP), and ISM data. And there’s the possible shutdown of the U.S. government, unless Congress can pass the necessary appropriations bills to keep federal agencies funded…which seems unlikely.
Best to Your Week!
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