Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 21st = Uptrend
- Average Directional Index: Uptrend
- Institutional Activity: Uptrend
- On-Balance Volume: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.2%. The index sits ~4% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.
We made it through another week without institutional selling, meaning all three indicators are bullish once again.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for Sept 21 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
The Technology sector ( $XLK ) outperformed again last week, while Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) was the worst sector again, along with Real Estate ( $XLRE ). Real Estate also fell back to neutral bias.
S&P Sector Performance from Week 38 of 2025
High Beta ( $SPHB ) outperformed last week, and Low Beta ( $SPLV ) underperformed and fell to bearish bias.
Sector Style Performance from Week 38 of 2025
Gold ( $GLD ) edged past U.S. equities last week to lead asset class returns, while Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed. There were no changes in bias.
Asset Class Performance from Week 38 2025
COMMENTARY
In a move that surprised no one, the FOMC cut rates 0.25% in response to weakening labor data. Market participants were more interested in the future rate path; how much more easing there will be. And on that front, messages out of the Fed were mixed. It’s likely we’ll need to see further deterioration in the labor market, and/or reduced inflationary pressure before more cuts are in play.
Fed Chair Powell gets another chance to discuss the plan ( or not ) during a speech on Tuesday. We’ll also Flash PMI just after market open, so expect volatility until the early afternoon. We’ll also get the final GDP update for Q2 at 8:30am Wednesday, followed by August PCE at 8:30am on Friday.
Best to Your Week!
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