Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 7th = Uptrend
- Average Directional Index: Uptrend
- Institutional Activity: Neutral
- On-Balance Volume: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities, despite last week’s weak labor data.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.3%. The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~9% above the 200-day moving average.
The ADX Directional Indicators briefly crossed over after the holiday weekend, but immediately reversed back to bullish; not surprising given the main reading is approaching 20. Three distribution days fell off the count, but two were added, so the total remains at seven (>5 = high). Price remains above key moving averages, so the signal stays at neutral.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for Sept 07 2025
PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Communications ( $XLC ) outperformed last week, while Energy ( $XLE ) gave back some recent gains. Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) improved from Bearish to Bullish after last week’s drop, and Utilities ( $XLE ) fell is testing its bias level.
S&P Sector Performance from Week 36 of 2025
Small cap value ( $IWN ) outperformed all other styles for a fourth week in a row; High Beta ( $SPHB) underperformed. Low Beta ( $SPLV ) is testing a bias level, moving from bullish the neutral.
Sector Style Performance from Week 36 of 2025
Gold ( $GLD ) led assets to the upside for a second week, while Oil ( $USO ) was the worst performer. No changes in bias to start the week.
Asset Class Performance from Week 36 2025
COMMENTARY
ISM Services and Manufacturing PMI were higher in August, though Manufacturing remains contractionary.
JOLTs ( July ) and Non-farm payrolls ( August ) show some weakness in the labor market, with both datasets coming in lower than expected. Given the recent back and forth about the validity of U.S. government statistics, it’s hard to get too excited about the numbers. That said, markets reacted as though the Federal Reserve got the green light to cut interest rates this month.
This Tuesday, the annual revision of NFP data is released, with expectations for a decrease of 818k jobs, likely increasing the pressure to ease. Then August PPI and CPI will hit the wires. Expect some volatile opening moves this week!
Best to Your Week!
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