Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 4th = Uptrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place, as U.S. equities continue notching all time highs.
The S&P500 ($SPX) gained 1.4% last week. The index sits ~5% above the 50-day moving average, and ~11.5% above the 200-day moving average. Over the past 25 years or so, the $SPX hasn’t spent a lot of time more than 10% above the 200-day moving average.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of Feb 04 2024
No change in the signals this week: both ADX and price/volume signals show an uptrend in place.
COMMENTARY
Last week’s QRA provided mixed signals, and a change in reporting methodology. It appears the U.S. treasury will have a negative issuance in Q2, meaning that some of it’s outstanding debt will be reduced.
The FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, and threw cold water on the idea of a rate cut in March. Since the market expect several rate cuts this year, the hawkish tone of the press conference was a surprise.
Non-farm payrolls were higher than expected. Although some adjustments skewed the number higher, it was still a large beat, and even managed to outperform on a year-over-year viewpoint.
Best to Your Week!
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