Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 10th = Uptrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
- Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend in place.
The S&P500 ($SPX) gained 0.2% last week. The index sits ~5% above the 50-day moving average, and ~7% above the 200-day moving average.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of Dec 10 2023
The ADX directional indicators and price/volume are bullish (strong uptrend, backed by companies breaking out of good price patterns and limited institutional selling).
For Elliott Wave, the SPX breached a key resistance level (4706) during Friday’s trading session, before closing lower. 4607 was the 100% retracement level for the July to October decline. Closing above that level would eliminate the Intermediate 2 and Minute C waves from consideration. Technical indicators show overbought conditions, with a negative divergence in the RSI(5) and a bearish cross-over in the MACD.
SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of Dec 10 2023
COMMENTARY
Last week’s U.S. employment data was a mixed bag: JOLTs data showed fewer job openings than expected in October, while NFP showed a better than expected increase of ~200k jobs in November and a drop in unemployment to 3.7%.
There will be a lot of economic activity for markets and investors to digest this week, including:
- Monday: U.S. Treasury auctions (3M, 6M, 3Y, 10Y)
- Tuesday: November CPI & 30Y Bond Auction
- Wednesday: November PPI & FOMC Rate Decision
- Thursday: November Retail Sales
- Friday: Options Expiration (End of Quarter / “Quadruple Witching” Day)
Best to Your Week!
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