Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 3rd = Uptrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
- Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend
ANALYSIS
No change in the stock market outlook, as we begin December in an uptrend.
The S&P500 ($SPX) gained x% during last week, and sits just below a long-term trendline from the all time high on January 4th, 2022! The index starts this week ~5.4% above the 50-day moving average, and ~7.2% above the 200-day moving average.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of Dec 03 2023
The ADX directional indicators and price/volume are bullish, while Elliott Wave analysis continues to wait for the current wave to end. 4607 is the key resistance level.
SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of Dec 03 2023
COMMENTARY
Revised GDP data shows the overall economy grew at a higher rate than first estimated. Unfortunately, government spending continues to increase relative to consumer spending, which is not a sign of strong consumers.
PCE data shows inflation continuing to slow; which means pricing are still rising, just not as quickly verses last month or last year. Slowing inflation is NOT the same as deflation, when prices are falling.
During his Friday speech, Fed Chair Powell said it’s premature to consider rate cuts, and that rate hikes are still a possibility. The treasury market disagreed; interest rates headed lower, which means participants expect rate cuts sooner rather than later. In fact, the Fed Futures market is pricing a ~60% probability of a rate for the March 20th FOMC meeting!
This week’s economic data centers on the jobs market, ahead of the next FOMC meeting on the 13th.
Best to Your Week!
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