Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 29th = Downtrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
- Price & Volume Signals: Downtrend
- Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows a downtrend firmly in place, with all three signals highlighting bearish action.
The S&P500 ($SPX) fell 2.5% last week, as the index lost support at the 200-day moving average.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of Oct 29 2023
The ADX directional indicators maintain a downtrend signal. Price/volume is also in correction mode, with a high level of institutional selling over the past 2 weeks.
Elliott Wave analysis also moves to a downtrend. The longer-term bullish count we’ve been tracking this year was invalidated last week, as the SPX fell through the 4195 price level (the Minor 1 high on Jan 30). The SPX will eventually reestablish a bullish view going forward, but for now the bearish count is now dominant.
SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of Oct 29 2023
COMMENTARY
PCE data showed inflation moderated in September, increasing +3.4% y/y vs. +3.4% in August. Core PCE came in at +3.7% y/y, vs. +3.8% in August.
The “advanced” 3rd quarter GDP data also came out last week, showing the U.S. economy grew at +2.9% verses Q3 in 2022. The 4.9% figure quoted by media outlets is the change versus Q2 2023. More than likely, both figures will be revised lower in November, when the “second” estimate is released.
In addition to an onslaught of earnings reports, the latest employment reports hit the wire this week (JOLTS, ADP, NFP).
Best to Your Week!
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