Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 15th = Downtrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
- Price & Volume Signals: Mixed
- Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend, despite last week’s bullish move.
The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 0.4% last week. The index found resistance at the 50-day last week, after finding support at the 200-day moving average two weeks back. As of Friday’s close, the SPX was ~2% below the 50-day and ~2.5% above the 200 day moving averages.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of Oct 15 2023
The ADX directional indicators starts the week in a bearish trend, after briefly reversing midweek.
Price/volume remains mixed, waiting for price to recover the 50-day moving average. That said, 3 distribution days after the start of the rally, isn’t great way to start a rally.
SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of Oct 15 2023 – Bearish Count
Elliott Wave analysis correctly anticipated last week’s bounce. The index exceeded the August 18th low, which did alter the waves counts slightly. However, the EW signal remains mixed, with the SPX pinned between the 13 and 34 day moving averages, the RSI(5) coming off overbought levels, and the MACD showing a bullish cross-over.
The bearish count remains in play unless the SPX breaks resistance at 4430 (Sept 7).
SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of Oct 15 2023 – Bullish Count
The bullish view takes shows the first wave of a Minor 5 in progress, which is supported by a positive MACD cross-over. Support level is last week’s low of 4216.
COMMENTARY
September PPI was higher than expected, and Augusts numbers were revised higher(!). Meanwhile, CPI was was mixed; headline was slightly higher, core was slightly lower.
- Headline = +3.7% y/y vs. +3.67% y/y last month
- Core = +4.1% y/y vs. +4.3% y/y last month
This week we’ve got Retail Sales on Tuesday, Housing data Wednesday and Thursday, plus a bunch of Fed speeches. Last but not least, more EARNINGS!
#earnings for the week of October 16, 2023https://t.co/lObOE0dgsr$TSLA $NFLX $BAC $UAL $LMT $T $SCHW $ASML $AAL $GS $TSM $ISRG $JNJ $PG $MS $LRCX $LVS $PLD $ABT $AA $BX $IBKR $SFBS $SLB $USB $NOK $AXP $ELV $DFS $KEY $COLB $FCX $BK $JBHT $MTB $NDAQ $TFC $WAL $ERIC $CMA $CSX… pic.twitter.com/azx2tFcBkZ
— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) October 13, 2023
No post next week; look for an update on October 29.
Best to Your Week!
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