Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 9th = Uptrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
- Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend for the S&P500.
The S&P500 ($SPX) fell 1.2% last week, but still provided investors an opportunity to lock in gains from the June rally. The index sits approximately 3% and 9% above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, respectively.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of July 09 2023
No change in signal for the ADX or price/volume technical indicators; an uptrend remains in place.
Elliott Wave maintains a downtrend, thanks to the completed wave structures. Now we wait for the next wave pattern to emerge. As mentioned last week, any sustained move higher at this point in time is unexpected and would require new counts.
COMMENTARY
According to the figures released last week, employment remains strong and job growth continues. Payroll data from ADP was higher than expected, but appears to include regional and seasonal adjustments that skewed the data. Job openings (JOLTS data) showed a small decrease, dropping from 10.3 million April to 9.8 million May. The non-farm payroll (NFP) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts June unemployment at 3.6%, little changed from last month.
This week marks the “official” start of Q2 earnings season, with major banks set to report on Friday, including JPMorgan ($JPM), Wells Fargo ($WFC), and Citi ($C). We also get the latest CPI data on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday.
Best to Your Week!
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