Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 10th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators:Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The stock markets took a breather last week.  Earnings season has been a mixed bag.  In some cases, future guidance was more important than beating expectations.

The 2018 performance review posted during the week; you can check it out here. The biggest change, from a weekly post perspective, is the switch from 50-day moving averages to the ADX directional indicator.

In the weekly view, the S&P ($SPX) basically ended where it started after running into resistance at the 200-day / 40-week moving average.  Even though it didn’t close at the highs for the first time in several weeks, there still isn’t a higher “low” to use for drawing the new uptrend.

SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-02-10 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

Switching to a daily view, the bounce lower from the 200-day moving average broke the tentative uptrend I had drawn. Now we wait for signs of support…I’d guess the mid-2600’s…or the 50-day moving average by the time prices get there.

SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-02-10 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The DI+ / DI- continues to show a bullish environment.  In support of the signal adjustments made in the 2018 performance review, the DI cross-overs (uptrend/downtrend signals) are now overlaid on the daily chart.

No change in price/volume; still in rally mode (above the 50 day moving average, limited institutional selling).  OEW also remains in uptrend mode.

2019-02-10 - US Stock Market Averages

2019-02-10 – US Stock Market Averages

The U.S. stock markets have made an impressive bounce off the late December low, so a brief pause / consolidation is a good thing…fingers crossed this uptrend/rally isn’t just a big bull trap!


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


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